Saltwater Intrusion in a Mediterranean Delta Under a Changing Climate

Bellafiore, D., Ferrarin, C., Maicu, F., Manfè, G., Lorenzetti, G., Umgiesser, G., Zaggia, L., & Levinson, A. V. (2021). Saltwater intrusion in a Mediterranean delta under a changing climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(2), e2020JC016437. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016437

This study analyzes saltwater intrusion in the Po Delta. By combining field observations from the drought conditions of 2017 with advanced numerical modeling, researchers have projected how the delta will respond to future climate change scenarios.

The results predict that saltwater intrusion could extend up to 80% further inland, while the time saltwater persists inland is expected to double (100% increase).

Furthermore, the study identifies that while sea-level rise is a contributing factor, the reduction of river discharge—often driven by upstream human activities like dam construction, land use and irrigation—is the primary driver of salt intrusion.